about this site

Always open to being wrong.

Dead Beta is where I think out loud. I run a portfolio of companies and spend my days analyzing data, managing risk, and making decisions with incomplete information. This site is the overflow — the experiments that didn't fit anywhere else.

The name is intentional. Every post here is a beta version of an idea: shipped before it's perfect, subject to revision, and likely to be wrong in at least one interesting way. That's the point. The alternative is saying nothing until you're certain, which is a good way to never say anything at all.

Topics drift wherever the data takes me — energy, finance, policy, culture, film, logistics. If there's a number attached to a question I find interesting, I'll probably write about it.